2.16 Visits
Predicted Order
So, you signed up for the loyalty program at your favorite store. To get deep discounts in the future, all you had to give up was your email address today. Easy peasy. But is that really all they get?
Reece Rogers recently learned the answer is, "No."
After requesting the data in his McDonald's loyalty program account, the Wired Magazine reporter received a whopper — I know, wrong reference — of a file...515 pages. To put that into perspective, that's about the size of a large FBI dossier.
When did eating at Mickey D's become a stakeout?
According to the company, their loyalty program files contain "specific pieces of personal information" on customers, including locations they most often visit, their likely next order and the chances they'll remain loyal. Rogers learned that McDonald's predicted he'd visit one of their stores 2.16 times in the next six weeks, spend $29.15 in that time period, and he'd never stop being a customer.
What would he order on that .16th visit?
After dissecting his data, Rogers promptly requested it be permanently deleted — and planned to stop eating at McDonald's. And who could blame him? It wasn't because they knew more about him than just his name and email. It was because they were now creating Vegas odds on his behavior. They had already decided what snack he'd order next and that he'd never give them up.
Much to Ronald's chagrin, Reece Rogers is not Rick Astley.
The Next Top Model
Predictive models often come in handy...until they don't. We like them when they're applied to the stock market, sports betting and the weather — but not when they’re applied to us.
Like Rogers, we resent it when our future behavior is accurately predicted. But this phenomenon extends beyond loyalty programs.
You disagree with your annual review that says something like, "...will be ready for advancement in about two years." As a result, you either take umbrage and set out to prove your manager wrong, or you coast because the timetable is set regardless.
A new task gets dumped on your plate, yet no one asked if you had capacity — or whether you even wanted it. Your manager predicted you could handle the extra work based on your performance in past situations, and you can, so you can't argue the assignment.
You've been told you're indispensable, but you never get promoted. You assume you've been labeled a low flight risk because you see colleagues advance after interviewing externally. Even though you have no plans to leave, you start manufacturing flight signals — casually mentioning headhunter outreach — because no one pays to secure something that's not at risk.
In each case the predictive model didn't just accurately describe what you'd do. It moved you to prove it wrong or stop trying. Either way, you're still producing data that predicts your next move.
Question of the Week
Who can accurately predict what you'll do, and why does that bother you?
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